Selling Certainty in Uncertain Times: Why Retail Media Networks Should Lean into Outcomes Now

Summary

The article argues that retail media networks (RMNs) are uniquely positioned to thrive in the current economic climate, where U.S. tariffs, supply chain issues, and macroeconomic uncertainty have tightened global advertising budgets. With GroupM forecasting global ad spend growth at just 5.8% in 2025 (down from 10.2% in 2021), marketers are prioritizing channels that deliver measurable ROI.

Digital—now 78% of US ad spend—grows at 7.1%, while retail media surges 18% YoY to $141 billion because it ties ads directly to transactions via first-party data and closed-loop attribution. The article highlights that RMNs offer 'outcomes' like 400% ROAS or a specific cost-per-order (CPO), shifting the conversation from reach to revenue certainty. Moloco’s machine learning platform is presented as enabling this shift through real-time inferences, flexible goal-setting (ROAS, CPO, sales maximization), and precision at the campaign/SKU level, delivering 3x higher ROAS than static models.

Key data points include the 2008 recession (ad spend drop ~18%, search ads resilient) and projections that tariffs could add $78 billion to US consumer prices. Actionable advice: RMNs must abandon impression/CPC bidding for outcome-based models to compete with Amazon’s Retail Ad Service. Moloco’s self-serve tools and ML guidance allow RMNs to offer certainty without heavy lift, making them essential as uncertainty persists.